Domestic development prospects of storage chips: policy driven+demand explosion, accelerated process of localization

Storage chips, as the “underlying cornerstone” of the digital economy, are widely used in fields such as mobile phones, servers, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence devices. Their industrial development level directly affects the competitiveness of China’s electronic information industry. Currently, domestic storage chips are entering a critical period of opportunity driven by both policy and market factors.

From a policy perspective, the country has included storage chips in key support areas such as the “14th Five Year Plan” for software and information technology service industry development and the “Strong Foundation Plan”. The first and second phases of the National Large Fund will continue to increase investment in the semiconductor industry, promoting the research and development of storage chips and capacity building. In 2023, the domestic storage chip market has exceeded 500 billion yuan, accounting for about 30% of the global market, but the self-sufficiency rate is still less than 20% (high-end products such as DRAM and 3D NAND rely on imports), and there is huge room for domestic substitution.

At the market demand level, the popularization of 5G base stations, the explosion of AI computing power, the increase in penetration rate of new energy vehicles (with a 3-5 fold increase in single vehicle storage demand), and the surge in IoT devices (with an annual shipment volume of over 2 billion units) are driving the continuous high growth of storage demand. Taking NAND Flash as an example, the global demand is expected to reach 200 billion GB by 2025. Domestic enterprises such as Changjiang Storage have approached the international advanced level of 128 layer and 232 layer 3D NAND technology, accelerating the release of production capacity.

In terms of technological breakthroughs, domestic enterprises are accelerating to catch up: Changxin Storage’s 19nm DRAM has entered the customer verification stage, breaking the overseas monopoly; Zhaoyi Innovation’s NOR flash memory has the third highest global market share (about 15%), covering scenarios such as consumer electronics and industrial control; Jiangbolong, Demingli and other packaging and testing companies have integrated their industrial chains to enhance their supporting capabilities.

Despite facing challenges such as technology blockades from international giants (such as EUV lithography machine restrictions) and low domestication rates of materials/equipment (photoresist and high-end target materials rely on imports), with the deepening of domestic “industry university research application” collaboration (such as joint research and development of storage materials and equipment by universities), coupled with the demand pull of the “East West Computing” project and new digital economy infrastructure, storage chips are expected to achieve a leap from “partial substitution” to “local leadership” within 3-5 years, becoming a core breakthrough point for China’s semiconductor industry to achieve independent and controllable development.